Ligue 1 · Matchweek 20
Toulouse
TFC
Monaco
MON
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Toulouse45%
Draw28%
Monaco27%
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.06
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 1–012.3%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession59%
39%Territory49%
4%From set plays14%
0.13Chance quality0.07
3.0%Directness3.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Toulouse, 3 for Monaco. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Toulouse
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 20 of 81 matches, not the full season.