Ligue 1 · Matchweek 20
Paris FC
PAR
Troyes
TRO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Paris FC58%
Draw22%
Troyes19%
Expected goals
2.01 – 1.11
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.9%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–08.9%
- 3–16.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Paris FC will have the ball; Troyes will not mind.
47%Possession38%
32%Territory46%
8%From set plays40%
0.13Chance quality0.12
3.2%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Paris FC, 3 for Troyes. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.