Ligue 1 · Matchweek 20
Paris FC
PAR
Troyes
TRO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Paris FC51%
Draw26%
Troyes23%
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.03
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.9%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Troyes get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
47%Possession39%
31%Territory41%
4%From set plays35%
0.14Chance quality0.10
3.3%Directness8.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Paris FC, 3 for Troyes. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Paris FC
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.