Ligue 1 · Matchweek 20
Lyon
OL
Lens
RCL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lyon44%
Draw26%
Lens31%
Expected goals
1.64 – 1.36
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–08.6%
- 1–27.3%
- 0–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession51%
38%Territory38%
22%From set plays23%
0.12Chance quality0.12
6.3%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lyon, 3 for Lens. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.