Ligue 1 · Matchweek 20
Lyon
OL
Lens
RCL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lyon40%
Draw29%
Lens31%
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.11
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.1%
- 1–012.0%
- 0–010.3%
- 0–110.1%
- 2–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession51%
40%Territory29%
24%From set plays12%
0.13Chance quality0.09
2.8%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lyon, 3 for Lens. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Lens
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.