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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Ligue 1 · Matchweek 20

Lorient

LOR

Le Havre

LEH

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Lorient46%
Draw28%
Le Havre26%

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.03

Over 2.5

44%

Both to score

50%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.6%
  • 1–012.6%
  • 0–09.6%
  • 2–19.0%
  • 0–18.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Le Havre get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

50%Possession48%
33%Territory39%
5%From set plays21%
0.12Chance quality0.09
5.7%Directness7.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lorient, 3 for Le Havre. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.