Ligue 1 · Matchweek 20
Lille
LIL
Nice
NIC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lille60%
Draw23%
Nice17%
Expected goals
1.83 – 0.90
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.5%
- 2–010.8%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–07.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession50%
36%Territory34%
36%From set plays26%
0.14Chance quality0.13
4.5%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lille, 3 for Nice. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 20 of 81 matches, not the full season.