Ligue 1 · Matchweek 20
Le Mans
LEM
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Le Mans20%
Draw22%
PSG59%
Expected goals
1.18 – 2.10
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–29.8%
- 1–19.4%
- 0–18.5%
- 0–28.3%
- 1–36.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
PSG will have the ball; Le Mans will not mind.
43%Possession67%
29%Territory46%
6%From set plays25%
0.21Chance quality0.08
7.4%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Le Mans, 3 for PSG. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.