Ligue 1 · Matchweek 20
Auxerre
AUX
Strasbourg
STR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Auxerre33%
Draw26%
Strasbourg41%
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.59
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 1–28.8%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–17.8%
- 1–07.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession48%
42%Territory35%
16%From set plays31%
0.13Chance quality0.10
5.6%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Auxerre, 3 for Strasbourg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Auxerre
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.