Ligue 1 · Matchweek 19
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG
Marseille
OM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
PSG69%
Draw17%
Marseille14%
Expected goals
2.65 – 1.20
Over 2.5
73%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.0%
- 3–17.9%
- 2–07.7%
- 1–16.9%
- 3–06.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
PSG will have the ball; Marseille will not mind.
71%Possession52%
48%Territory45%
16%From set plays35%
0.16Chance quality0.12
4.5%Directness4.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for PSG, 3 for Marseille. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 20 of 81 matches, not the full season.