Ligue 1 · Matchweek 19
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG
Marseille
OM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
PSG62%
Draw20%
Marseille17%
Expected goals
2.22 – 1.13
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.8%
- 1–18.9%
- 2–08.7%
- 1–08.4%
- 3–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
PSG will have the ball; Marseille will not mind.
67%Possession59%
46%Territory47%
25%From set plays7%
0.08Chance quality0.10
5.4%Directness3.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for PSG, 3 for Marseille. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.