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Ligue 1 · Matchweek 19

Troyes

TRO

Lille

LIL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Troyes25%
Draw25%
Lille50%

Expected goals

1.20 – 1.74

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1111.2%
  • 019.8%
  • 129.6%
  • 027.8%
  • 106.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Troyes get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

38%Possession45%
46%Territory31%
40%From set plays4%
0.12Chance quality0.13
6.7%Directness4.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Troyes, 3 for Lille. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.