Ligue 1 · Matchweek 19
Troyes
TRO
Lille
LIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Troyes25%
Draw25%
Lille50%
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.74
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–27.8%
- 1–06.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Troyes get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
38%Possession45%
46%Territory31%
40%From set plays4%
0.12Chance quality0.13
6.7%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Troyes, 3 for Lille. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.