Ligue 1 · Matchweek 19
Troyes
TRO
Lille
LIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Troyes23%
Draw30%
Lille47%
Expected goals
0.85 – 1.30
Over 2.5
36%
Both to score
43%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–115.4%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–012.8%
- 1–09.6%
- 0–29.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lille will have the ball; Troyes will not mind.
39%Possession55%
41%Territory36%
35%From set plays36%
0.10Chance quality0.14
8.3%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Troyes, 3 for Lille. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 20 of 81 matches, not the full season.