Ligue 1 · Matchweek 19
Strasbourg
STR
Paris FC
PAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Strasbourg43%
Draw25%
Paris FC32%
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.51
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.4%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.5%
- 1–07.2%
- 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession47%
36%Territory32%
10%From set plays8%
0.12Chance quality0.13
4.2%Directness3.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Strasbourg, 3 for Paris FC. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.