Ligue 1 · Matchweek 19
Lorient
LOR
Le Mans
LEM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lorient56%
Draw27%
Le Mans17%
Expected goals
1.51 – 0.72
Over 2.5
38%
Both to score
41%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–016.6%
- 2–011.8%
- 0–011.7%
- 1–111.6%
- 2–19.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession52%
37%Territory30%
42%From set plays47%
0.10Chance quality0.09
5.2%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lorient, 3 for Le Mans. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Lorient
Le Mans
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 20 of 81 matches, not the full season.