Ligue 1 · Matchweek 19
Lens
RCL
Angers
ANG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lens65%
Draw20%
Angers15%
Expected goals
2.16 – 0.97
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–010.2%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.1%
- 3–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession46%
38%Territory33%
23%From set plays34%
0.12Chance quality0.09
4.3%Directness6.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lens, 3 for Angers. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.