Ligue 1 · Matchweek 19
Le Havre
LEH
Toulouse
TFC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Le Havre27%
Draw26%
Toulouse47%
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.63
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–27.5%
- 1–07.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Toulouse will have the ball; Le Havre will not mind.
43%Possession55%
38%Territory39%
25%From set plays4%
0.13Chance quality0.13
5.2%Directness3.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Le Havre, 3 for Toulouse. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.