Ligue 1 · Matchweek 19
Le Havre
LEH
Toulouse
TFC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Le Havre33%
Draw29%
Toulouse38%
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.32
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.9%
- 0–110.8%
- 1–09.8%
- 0–09.2%
- 1–28.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession54%
39%Territory43%
21%From set plays20%
0.09Chance quality0.15
7.3%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Le Havre, 3 for Toulouse. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Le Havre
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.