Ligue 1 · Matchweek 19
Auxerre
AUX
Monaco
MON
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Auxerre30%
Draw26%
Monaco44%
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.56
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.8%
- 0–19.7%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–07.6%
- 2–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession41%
43%Territory42%
25%From set plays16%
0.11Chance quality0.12
6.2%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Auxerre, 3 for Monaco. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.