Ligue 1 · Matchweek 18
Toulouse
TFC
Lens
RCL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Toulouse34%
Draw25%
Lens41%
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.71
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.5%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–17.7%
- 0–17.1%
- 2–26.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession51%
43%Territory38%
20%From set plays23%
0.15Chance quality0.12
3.8%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Toulouse, 3 for Lens. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Toulouse
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.