Ligue 1 · Matchweek 18
Toulouse
TFC
Lens
RCL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Toulouse37%
Draw30%
Lens33%
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.14
Over 2.5
41%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.3%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–010.8%
- 0–110.8%
- 2–18.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession51%
39%Territory29%
4%From set plays12%
0.13Chance quality0.09
3.0%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Toulouse, 3 for Lens. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Toulouse
Lens
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 20 of 81 matches, not the full season.