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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Ligue 1 · Matchweek 18

Rennes

REN

Lorient

LOR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Rennes43%
Draw26%
Lorient31%

Expected goals

1.64 – 1.36

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

61%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.3%
  • 2–19.0%
  • 1–08.6%
  • 1–27.4%
  • 0–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Lorient get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

49%Possession49%
36%Territory38%
12%From set plays44%
0.18Chance quality0.12
4.5%Directness4.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Rennes, 3 for Lorient. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 20 of 81 matches, not the full season.