Ligue 1 · Matchweek 18
Paris FC
PAR
Auxerre
AUX
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Paris FC56%
Draw24%
Auxerre20%
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.01
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.4%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.5%
- 0–06.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Auxerre get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
47%Possession42%
32%Territory43%
8%From set plays25%
0.13Chance quality0.11
3.2%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Paris FC, 3 for Auxerre. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.