Ligue 1 · Matchweek 18
Monaco
MON
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Monaco27%
Draw25%
PSG47%
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.69
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–19.3%
- 0–27.2%
- 2–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
PSG will have the ball; Monaco will not mind.
41%Possession67%
42%Territory46%
16%From set plays25%
0.12Chance quality0.08
6.2%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Monaco, 3 for PSG. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.