Ligue 1 · Matchweek 18
Monaco
MON
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Monaco22%
Draw24%
PSG54%
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.88
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.5%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–19.6%
- 0–28.3%
- 1–36.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
PSG will have the ball; Monaco will not mind.
59%Possession71%
49%Territory48%
14%From set plays16%
0.07Chance quality0.16
3.2%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Monaco, 3 for PSG. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 20 of 81 matches, not the full season.