Ligue 1 · Matchweek 18
Marseille
OM
Troyes
TRO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Marseille56%
Draw23%
Troyes21%
Expected goals
1.91 – 1.13
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–08.6%
- 3–16.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Marseille will have the ball; Troyes will not mind.
52%Possession39%
45%Territory41%
35%From set plays35%
0.12Chance quality0.10
4.1%Directness8.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Marseille, 3 for Troyes. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 20 of 81 matches, not the full season.