Ligue 1 · Matchweek 18
Marseille
OM
Troyes
TRO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Marseille59%
Draw21%
Troyes20%
Expected goals
2.24 – 1.29
Over 2.5
67%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.6%
- 1–18.6%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–07.2%
- 3–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Marseille will have the ball; Troyes will not mind.
59%Possession38%
47%Territory46%
7%From set plays40%
0.10Chance quality0.12
3.6%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Marseille, 3 for Troyes. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.