Ligue 1 · Matchweek 18
Brest
BRS
Strasbourg
STR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Brest42%
Draw24%
Strasbourg34%
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.64
Over 2.5
66%
Both to score
68%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.8%
- 2–18.5%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–06.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Brest get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
45%Possession51%
35%Territory36%
33%From set plays10%
0.11Chance quality0.12
8.3%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Brest, 3 for Strasbourg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.