Ligue 1 · Matchweek 17
Troyes
TRO
Monaco
MON
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Troyes29%
Draw25%
Monaco46%
Expected goals
1.39 – 1.76
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.2%
- 0–18.0%
- 2–17.1%
- 2–26.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Troyes get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
38%Possession41%
46%Territory42%
40%From set plays16%
0.12Chance quality0.12
6.7%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Troyes, 3 for Monaco. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.