Ligue 1 · Matchweek 17
Toulouse
TFC
Nice
NIC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Toulouse55%
Draw25%
Nice21%
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.01
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.6%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.4%
- 0–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nice get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
55%Possession50%
39%Territory34%
4%From set plays26%
0.13Chance quality0.13
3.0%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Toulouse, 3 for Nice. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Toulouse
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 20 of 81 matches, not the full season.