Ligue 1 · Matchweek 17
Toulouse
TFC
Nice
NIC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Toulouse56%
Draw24%
Nice20%
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.03
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.2%
- 1–110.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.4%
- 0–06.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
54%Possession61%
43%Territory39%
20%From set plays26%
0.15Chance quality0.09
3.8%Directness3.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Toulouse, 3 for Nice. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Toulouse
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.