Ligue 1 · Matchweek 17
Strasbourg
STR
Lyon
OL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Strasbourg36%
Draw27%
Lyon37%
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.40
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.2%
- 0–19.1%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–28.3%
- 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession48%
35%Territory40%
31%From set plays24%
0.10Chance quality0.13
5.0%Directness2.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Strasbourg, 3 for Lyon. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 20 of 81 matches, not the full season.