Ligue 1 · Matchweek 17
Strasbourg
STR
Lyon
OL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Strasbourg35%
Draw26%
Lyon39%
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.56
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 1–28.5%
- 2–18.0%
- 0–17.9%
- 1–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession55%
36%Territory38%
10%From set plays22%
0.12Chance quality0.12
4.2%Directness6.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Strasbourg, 3 for Lyon. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.