Ligue 1 · Matchweek 17
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG
Auxerre
AUX
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
PSG71%
Draw18%
Auxerre11%
Expected goals
2.25 – 0.81
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-1.25
Most likely scorelines
- 2–012.0%
- 1–011.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–08.6%
- 1–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
PSG will have the ball; Auxerre will not mind.
67%Possession42%
46%Territory43%
25%From set plays25%
0.08Chance quality0.11
5.4%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for PSG, 3 for Auxerre. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.