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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Ligue 1 · Matchweek 17

Lorient

LOR

Marseille

OM

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Lorient44%
Draw27%
Marseille29%

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.18

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.3%
  • 1–010.7%
  • 2–19.0%
  • 0–18.3%
  • 0–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.

47%Possession52%
36%Territory45%
42%From set plays35%
0.13Chance quality0.12
3.5%Directness4.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Lorient, 3 for Marseille. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.