Ligue 1 · Matchweek 17
Lille
LIL
Paris FC
PAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lille46%
Draw27%
Paris FC27%
Expected goals
1.56 – 1.15
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.7%
- 0–17.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession47%
31%Territory32%
4%From set plays8%
0.13Chance quality0.13
4.6%Directness3.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lille, 3 for Paris FC. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.