Ligue 1 · Matchweek 17
Lens
RCL
Brest
BRS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lens56%
Draw22%
Brest22%
Expected goals
2.15 – 1.34
Over 2.5
67%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.5%
- 1–19.0%
- 1–07.1%
- 2–07.1%
- 3–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession45%
38%Territory35%
23%From set plays33%
0.12Chance quality0.11
4.3%Directness8.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lens, 3 for Brest. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.