Ligue 1 · Matchweek 17
Le Havre
LEH
Rennes
REN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Le Havre30%
Draw21%
Rennes48%
Expected goals
1.81 – 2.26
Over 2.5
76%
Both to score
75%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–28.0%
- 1–17.4%
- 2–27.2%
- 2–16.2%
- 1–35.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
43%Possession49%
38%Territory36%
25%From set plays12%
0.13Chance quality0.18
5.2%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Le Havre, 3 for Rennes. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 20 of 81 matches, not the full season.