Ligue 1 · Matchweek 16
Strasbourg
STR
Le Mans
LEM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Strasbourg56%
Draw21%
Le Mans23%
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.47
Over 2.5
71%
Both to score
70%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.1%
- 1–18.2%
- 3–16.7%
- 2–26.6%
- 2–06.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession43%
36%Territory29%
10%From set plays6%
0.12Chance quality0.21
4.2%Directness7.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Strasbourg, 3 for Le Mans. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.