Ligue 1 · Matchweek 16
Rennes
REN
Lens
RCL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Rennes37%
Draw23%
Lens40%
Expected goals
1.82 – 1.91
Over 2.5
70%
Both to score
72%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–18.8%
- 1–28.0%
- 2–17.5%
- 2–27.3%
- 0–15.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession51%
46%Territory38%
11%From set plays23%
0.11Chance quality0.12
4.4%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Rennes, 3 for Lens. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.