Ligue 1 · Matchweek 16
Paris FC
PAR
Toulouse
TFC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Paris FC46%
Draw26%
Toulouse28%
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.24
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–17.3%
- 2–07.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession54%
32%Territory43%
8%From set plays20%
0.13Chance quality0.15
3.2%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Paris FC, 3 for Toulouse. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.