Ligue 1 · Matchweek 16
Nice
NIC
Le Havre
LEH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Nice49%
Draw23%
Le Havre28%
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.45
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–07.1%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession43%
34%Territory38%
26%From set plays25%
0.13Chance quality0.13
5.6%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Nice, 3 for Le Havre. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.