Ligue 1 · Matchweek 16
Monaco
MON
Brest
BRS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Monaco47%
Draw25%
Brest28%
Expected goals
1.77 – 1.35
Over 2.5
59%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–08.3%
- 1–26.9%
- 2–06.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Brest get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
41%Possession45%
42%Territory35%
16%From set plays33%
0.12Chance quality0.11
6.2%Directness8.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Monaco, 3 for Brest. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.