Ligue 1 · Matchweek 16
Marseille
OM
Lille
LIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Marseille34%
Draw27%
Lille39%
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.49
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 0–18.9%
- 1–28.6%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–17.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession55%
45%Territory36%
35%From set plays36%
0.12Chance quality0.14
4.1%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Marseille, 3 for Lille. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 20 of 81 matches, not the full season.