Ligue 1 · Matchweek 16
Lyon
OL
Lorient
LOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lyon55%
Draw25%
Lorient20%
Expected goals
1.69 – 0.95
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.6%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–09.9%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lyon get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
55%Possession50%
38%Territory33%
22%From set plays5%
0.12Chance quality0.12
6.3%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lyon, 3 for Lorient. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.