Ligue 1 · Matchweek 16
Auxerre
AUX
Troyes
TRO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Auxerre44%
Draw26%
Troyes30%
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.31
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 1–09.2%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.3%
- 1–27.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Troyes get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
42%Possession38%
43%Territory46%
25%From set plays40%
0.11Chance quality0.12
6.2%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Auxerre, 3 for Troyes. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.