Ligue 1 · Matchweek 16
Auxerre
AUX
Troyes
TRO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Auxerre42%
Draw29%
Troyes29%
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.09
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.9%
- 1–012.1%
- 0–09.9%
- 0–19.5%
- 2–18.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Auxerre will have the ball; Troyes will not mind.
48%Possession39%
42%Territory41%
16%From set plays35%
0.13Chance quality0.10
5.6%Directness8.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Auxerre, 3 for Troyes. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Auxerre
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.