Ligue 1 · Matchweek 15
Lens
RCL
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lens34%
Draw25%
PSG41%
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.68
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
65%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.7%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–17.8%
- 0–17.2%
- 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
PSG will have the ball; Lens will not mind.
51%Possession67%
38%Territory46%
23%From set plays25%
0.12Chance quality0.08
4.3%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lens, 3 for PSG. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.