Ligue 1 · Matchweek 15
Paris FC
PAR
Le Havre
LEH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Paris FC57%
Draw22%
Le Havre21%
Expected goals
2.12 – 1.28
Over 2.5
65%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.2%
- 1–07.6%
- 2–07.5%
- 3–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Le Havre get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
47%Possession43%
31%Territory38%
4%From set plays25%
0.14Chance quality0.13
3.3%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Paris FC, 3 for Le Havre. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Paris FC
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.