Ligue 1 · Matchweek 15
Paris FC
PAR
Le Havre
LEH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Paris FC53%
Draw26%
Le Havre21%
Expected goals
1.62 – 0.96
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.8%
- 1–111.8%
- 2–09.7%
- 2–19.6%
- 0–08.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession48%
32%Territory39%
8%From set plays21%
0.13Chance quality0.09
3.2%Directness7.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Paris FC, 3 for Le Havre. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Le Havre
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.