Ligue 1 · Matchweek 15
Lorient
LOR
Auxerre
AUX
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lorient51%
Draw28%
Auxerre21%
Expected goals
1.44 – 0.84
Over 2.5
39%
Both to score
44%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–015.2%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–011.4%
- 2–010.2%
- 2–19.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lorient get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
47%Possession48%
37%Territory42%
42%From set plays16%
0.10Chance quality0.13
5.2%Directness5.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lorient, 3 for Auxerre. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Lorient
Auxerre
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 20 of 81 matches, not the full season.