Ligue 1 · Matchweek 15
Lorient
LOR
Auxerre
AUX
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lorient48%
Draw27%
Auxerre25%
Expected goals
1.58 – 1.09
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 1–011.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–08.3%
- 0–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lorient will have the ball; Auxerre will not mind.
50%Possession42%
33%Territory43%
5%From set plays25%
0.12Chance quality0.11
5.7%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lorient, 3 for Auxerre. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.