Ligue 1 · Matchweek 15
Lille
LIL
Strasbourg
STR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lille50%
Draw24%
Strasbourg26%
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.32
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–07.0%
- 1–26.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession51%
31%Territory36%
4%From set plays10%
0.13Chance quality0.12
4.6%Directness4.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lille, 3 for Strasbourg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.