Ligue 1 · Matchweek 15
Lille
LIL
Strasbourg
STR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lille51%
Draw26%
Strasbourg23%
Expected goals
1.64 – 1.04
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.8%
- 1–111.7%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.9%
- 0–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession48%
36%Territory35%
36%From set plays31%
0.14Chance quality0.10
4.5%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lille, 3 for Strasbourg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.