Ligue 1 · Matchweek 15
Le Mans
LEM
Lyon
OL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Le Mans27%
Draw25%
Lyon48%
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.72
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.2%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–19.4%
- 0–27.3%
- 2–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Lyon will have the ball; Le Mans will not mind.
43%Possession55%
29%Territory38%
6%From set plays22%
0.21Chance quality0.12
7.4%Directness6.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Le Mans, 3 for Lyon. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.