Ligue 1 · Matchweek 15
Brest
BRS
Marseille
OM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Brest41%
Draw25%
Marseille34%
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.56
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
66%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.3%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Marseille will have the ball; Brest will not mind.
44%Possession52%
28%Territory45%
13%From set plays35%
0.13Chance quality0.12
7.1%Directness4.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Brest, 3 for Marseille. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 20 of 81 matches, not the full season.