Ligue 1 · Matchweek 14
Lyon
OL
Marseille
OM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lyon49%
Draw24%
Marseille26%
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.28
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–07.2%
- 1–26.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession52%
40%Territory45%
24%From set plays35%
0.13Chance quality0.12
2.8%Directness4.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lyon, 3 for Marseille. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.