Ligue 1 · Matchweek 14
Lyon
OL
Marseille
OM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lyon52%
Draw24%
Marseille24%
Expected goals
1.82 – 1.20
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–07.9%
- 1–26.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
55%Possession59%
38%Territory47%
22%From set plays7%
0.12Chance quality0.10
6.3%Directness3.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lyon, 3 for Marseille. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.