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Ligue 1 · Matchweek 14

Nice

NIC

Lens

RCL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Nice27%
Draw26%
Lens47%

Expected goals

1.21 – 1.64

Over 2.5

53%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.6%
  • 0–110.0%
  • 1–29.4%
  • 0–27.4%
  • 1–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

50%Possession51%
34%Territory29%
26%From set plays12%
0.13Chance quality0.09
5.6%Directness4.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Nice, 3 for Lens. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 20 of 81 matches, not the full season.