Ligue 1 · Matchweek 14
Nice
NIC
Lens
RCL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Nice27%
Draw26%
Lens47%
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.64
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–27.4%
- 1–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession51%
34%Territory29%
26%From set plays12%
0.13Chance quality0.09
5.6%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Nice, 3 for Lens. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Lens
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 20 of 81 matches, not the full season.