Ligue 1 · Matchweek 14
Lorient
LOR
Lille
LIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lorient32%
Draw34%
Lille34%
Expected goals
0.94 – 0.96
Over 2.5
30%
Both to score
39%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 0–016.7%
- 0–114.2%
- 1–013.8%
- 1–113.6%
- 1–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
47%Possession55%
36%Territory36%
42%From set plays36%
0.13Chance quality0.14
3.5%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Lorient, 3 for Lille. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.