Ligue 1 · Matchweek 14
Lorient
LOR
Lille
LIL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Lorient31%
Draw28%
Lille41%
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.41
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 0–110.6%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–28.7%
- 0–08.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession45%
33%Territory31%
5%From set plays4%
0.12Chance quality0.13
5.7%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Lorient, 3 for Lille. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.