Ligue 1 · Matchweek 14
Le Havre
LEH
Le Mans
LEM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Le Havre40%
Draw27%
Le Mans33%
Expected goals
1.49 – 1.32
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.0%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–18.2%
- 1–27.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession43%
39%Territory29%
21%From set plays6%
0.09Chance quality0.21
7.3%Directness7.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Le Havre, 3 for Le Mans. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Le Havre
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.