Ligue 1 · Matchweek 14
Brest
BRS
Troyes
TRO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Brest56%
Draw22%
Troyes22%
Expected goals
2.03 – 1.24
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.7%
- 1–08.3%
- 2–07.8%
- 3–16.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession38%
35%Territory46%
33%From set plays40%
0.11Chance quality0.12
8.3%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Brest, 3 for Troyes. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.