Ligue 1 · Matchweek 14
Brest
BRS
Troyes
TRO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Brest50%
Draw27%
Troyes23%
Expected goals
1.51 – 0.96
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.2%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–09.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–09.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
42%Possession39%
24%Territory41%
20%From set plays35%
0.14Chance quality0.10
7.1%Directness8.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 2 for Brest, 3 for Troyes. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Brest
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.