Ligue 1 · Matchweek 13
Toulouse
TFC
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Toulouse25%
Draw25%
PSG50%
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.71
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 0–110.1%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–27.9%
- 1–06.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
PSG will have the ball; Toulouse will not mind.
54%Possession67%
43%Territory46%
20%From set plays25%
0.15Chance quality0.08
3.8%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Toulouse, 3 for PSG. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Toulouse
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.