Ligue 1 · Matchweek 13
Toulouse
TFC
Paris Saint-Germain
PSG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Toulouse25%
Draw26%
PSG48%
Expected goals
1.11 – 1.59
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.9%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–28.1%
- 0–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
PSG will have the ball; Toulouse will not mind.
55%Possession71%
39%Territory48%
4%From set plays16%
0.13Chance quality0.16
3.0%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Toulouse, 3 for PSG. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Toulouse
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.