Ligue 1 · Matchweek 13
Strasbourg
STR
Lorient
LOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Strasbourg38%
Draw30%
Lorient32%
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.15
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–110.4%
- 0–010.2%
- 2–18.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
48%Possession47%
35%Territory36%
31%From set plays42%
0.10Chance quality0.13
5.0%Directness3.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Strasbourg, 2 for Lorient. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Lorient
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 19 of 80 matches, not the full season.