Ligue 1 · Matchweek 13
Strasbourg
STR
Lorient
LOR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Strasbourg50%
Draw24%
Lorient26%
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.33
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–08.1%
- 2–07.0%
- 1–26.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
51%Possession50%
36%Territory33%
10%From set plays5%
0.12Chance quality0.12
4.2%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Strasbourg, 3 for Lorient. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.