Ligue 1 · Matchweek 13
Paris FC
PAR
Le Mans
LEM
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Paris FC55%
Draw23%
Le Mans23%
Expected goals
1.98 – 1.24
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.5%
- 2–07.8%
- 3–16.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession43%
32%Territory29%
8%From set plays6%
0.13Chance quality0.21
3.2%Directness7.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Paris FC, 3 for Le Mans. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 25 of 36 matches, not the full season.